Best (and Worst) Horror of the Last 4 Years (2013-6)

Heard a lot of people argue that horror has been going downhill of late. I don't think that's quite true. While mainstream horror has overdosed on bad remakes, terrible spoofs, and trying to make new franchises happen, independent and foreign horror has, more often than not, brought the scary goods to horror fans everywhere.  With more streaming services available (as well as illegal downloads to the more ethically neutral), a greater variety of horror can be shared by all.

But what horror films are the best? I will attempt to answer this question in this post. I have not seen all the horror that came out from the last four years, but I've seen every item in this list and I can argue for or against why you should add it to your list. Although there might be mild spoilers, I'll try to avoid ruining any of these films for you.

Items in parentheses are ones that might be questionably considered horror by some, but I believe they belong here due to subject matter or presentation.  And here we go:

Part 1: Not recommended for general consumption

Says what it does on the tin. These aren't really recommended to be watched by many of you.  Maybe those wanting a good laugh out of bad films might take a shot at some of these, but eh, don't waste your time.

D-

34.  Texas Chainsaw Massacre 3D

Not much to say about this monstrosity, except the story of a baby girl who grows up as the daughter of killer bigots only to find that she has a Texas mansion to claim.  One road trip follows, but needless to say she never bothered to read the fine print.  Or the letter in the envelope explaining everything to her.

This is the sort of film where the lead character catches her boyfriend cheating on her with his ex and she says nothing.  Nothing.  Oh, and they allow a stranger they picked up while hitchhiking to have his run of the place while everyone shops for dinner.  By himself with no one watching.  The sort of film where explanations are in short order and character motivations make zero sense.

Not even a cute in joke involving the production company's other product can distract from the general, eye gouging crappiness and Texas sized levels of stupidity throughout.

33.  I, Frankenstein

The lovely folks behind Underworld decided that they needed another franchise so we get this extremely anemic take on the story of Frankenstein's monster.  Named Adam Frankenstein (of course), he manages to kill Victor's wife in a fit of rage and kills Victor by outracing it into the Arctic.  And this is the hero. Fortunately in trying to give Victor a decent burial, Adam gets caught up in a secret war between demons and gargoyles.

Somehow featuring Bill Nighy in Michael Sheen's role, Chuck's handler/girlfriend as the scientist maiden in distress, and Jai Courtney as the Gargoyle Queen's bodyguard, the film tries real hard to force the Underworld template in the Frankenstein story.  But the transplant is rejected in a woozy backlash of CGI explosions, non-sensical fights, and enough backstory for a Underworld sequel.  Without the accompaniment of a cool hero like the leather clad Selene to get behind, Frankenstein becomes a dull slog.

Although Aaron Eckhart does look fine with his shirt off (those pre-film workouts did their job at least).

32.  Room 237

The Shining may not be a subtle film, but at least it serves as a chilling reminder of the explosive nature of Jack Nicholson as well as a testament warning of the dangers of cabin fever.

The documentary (whose title was the number that the Torrence family was warned to stay away from) offers several theories as to what the film means.  Various theories argue that it's in reference to the moon landing being faked, the genocide of Native Americans, minotaurs, and the Holocaust.  They point to various scenes in the film as being representative of their arguments.

While it's interesting to see the film showed backwards and forwards at the same time which reveals some interesting things, the majority of these arguments are crackpot.  And the fact they treat those theories with the same credibility as someone with more legitimate ones makes the documentary crackpot as well.

The floor plans of the hotel are the most interesting part, by the way.

31.  Scary Movie 5

A franchise which has gone much further than is probably necessary at this point.

Scary Movie 5 pokes fun at Mama, Paranormal Activity, Inception and Black Swan rather feebly.  A woman who is training to be a ballet dancer agrees to take on three kids as long as they live in a house with numerous cameras present.  The catch is that the kids see a ghost/evil spirit of some sort as Mama.

Ashley Tisdale takes on the thankless role of being straight woman from Anna Faris and does about as well as Sharpay's Fabulous Adventure.  Remember when Malcolm Lee had promise as a director?  Maybe just after Roll Bounce?  It seems longer.

Poor Terry Crews.

30.  A Haunted House 2

A franchise that probably wasn't necessary, but the Wayans brothers (younger edition) need the paychecks so here we go.

After an attempt to save his girlfriend Kisha goes for naught, Malcolm moves into a new house with new girlfriend Megan and her family when strange things start to happen.  Malcolm decides to record everything in the hopes of finding a possible solution.  Along the way, he has sex with a doll who turns crazy, seeks help with a psychologist, paranormal investigators, and a priest, and befriends a Mexican neighbor.

Every time that Gabriel Iglesias comes on screen, the film threatens to actually get better as his character snaps at cheap stereotypes before ultimately conforming to them.  It's not much, but it is an improvement on Scary Movie 5.  Also, found a few scattered laughs elsewhere although it's still surprisingly raunchy for this type of material (it seems as though Marlon Wayans has one type of response for humor: go low).

Poor Mark Henry.

D

29.  Rosemary's Baby (2014)

The saga of Ro (Zoe Saldana) trying to conceive a baby only to learn that the people who are their neighbors and friends may not be trustworthy takes a detour from a small New York flat to a more luxurious apartment in Paris.  Saldana is likable, Jason Isaacs and Carole Bouquet as the Castevets are suitably delicious, and there's a nifty sequence involving the Catacombs in Paris.

Patrick J. Adams is super bland as Ro's husband Guy and the film fails to explain why it needs 2 additional hours to tell the story that was told quite well enough in the 1968 version.

There is more gore in this remake, however.  For what it's worth.

D+

28.  The Houses October Built

There's some hint that there is a better film lurking under the surface of this found footage film.  The documentary which this film is based on may well be the better version.

What we get is a found footage horror of five idiots deciding to find the scariest horror house possible, not caring about their own safety in the process.  There's one woman, one fat guy, and three other white guys.  No effort is made to differentiate between the white guys so no one cares when one of them "disappears".

As a bad found footage film, the scares are of the jump variety and are saved until the final reels.  This is one road trip you can safely skip.

27.  Unfriended

Much like Houses October Built, there are some germs of an interesting story here as we witness a group of bullies get their comeuppance at the possible hand of the girl who killed herself due to their mockery online.  The use of various windows making you part of the conversation is interesting and watching the nominal lead consider saying something, deleting it, and putting in something a bit kinder is fine.

But without a likable character in the midst, what we're left with here is a horror film relying on either a killer script or some nifty kills.  Unfriended fails on both parts.  Not even the sight of the evil characters turning on each other leads to any sort of catharsis.  Just a slight shrug.

There's a reason final girls are in horror films, people.

Part 2: Horror Films that are Alright

These aren't good horror films, these aren't terrible ones.  These are just there.

C-

26.  Evil Dead (2013)

The film gets off to a promising start, explaining why the group of teens are there and why they don't want to leave.  Mia is addicted to heroin and they intend to stay at an isolated cabin until she comes clean.  Nice to see some logic included in a horror film.  Also, nice of Diablo Cody to not make the dialogue super cutesy.

But problems start when someone stumbles across a Book of the Dead and decides to read from it.

Logic goes out the window, replaced by blood.  Not even a clever post-credits scene can save this film from drowning in it.

25.  (Godzilla (2014))

Much like Evil Dead, this film gets out to a promising start as Godzilla is nuked on an island off Japan only to come back bigger, stronger, and angrier.  He takes on a nuclear plant in Tokyo which leads supervisor Joe Brody (Bryan Cranston) into an obsession that drives a wedge between him and his son.  15 years later, things go from there.

Can we agree on the following 3 things please?

1.  Bryan Cranston's Ahab character is more interesting than the Aaron Taylor-Johnson heroic one
2.  More films could use Sally Hawkins and Ken Watanabe as supporting characters
3.  This is more accurate than the 1998 Roland Emmerich film, but not nearly as much fun.

The Godzilla in this incarnation gets all the critical things right about the monster.  The scale, the atomic breath, the tail.  But if doesn't bring any sort of fun or joy as Godzilla turns out to be a symbol of terror that attacks Japan and the West Coast of the US.

Eh, give me the Godzilla in a suit or even the 1998 one.

C

24.  

All Summer '16 (Box Office Summer Predictions*)

This may be a tad bit late (normally, I'd like to do this before we know the first film to release in May), but with 98-99 percent of the films/box office unknown, I think we can still do this.  I will write a brief description of the analysis of each major film releasing from May-August followed by the opening and gross in bold.

Keep a couple of things in mind.  1)  Odds are that some film will change its date and what might have been a legit sleeper in one spot could end up going nowhere in another and 2) it's also possible that a film scheduled to go wide ends up not doing so or vice versa.

Let's do this by date:

May 6:

Captain America: Civil War:  The much beloved Marvel Franchise (RT scores have gone 80 and 89 its first two installments) goes the Avenger route in part 3 as a decision whether to have a relationship with the government or continue to act on their own leads to a split between superheroes.  Part 3 is continuing down the same path that pleases critics (the RT is 90 percent) and audiences (A Cinemascore) alike.  Its opening suggests that maybe the genre has already peaked; the numbers I'm seeing indicate that Captain will hold quite well, thank you.  179.1 million; 483.7 million (179.1 million/

May 13:

Money Monster:  George Clooney plays a Wall Street guru named Lee Gates (think Jim Cramer) whose live show is taken over by disgruntled, desperate investor who has lost everything (Jack O'Connell).  With an ear on the situation, his producer Patty (Julia Roberts) attempts to defuse the situation alongside Lee himself.  You can't say they haven't been trying to advertise this; Roberts and Clooney appeared on Corden's Car Karaoke while director Jodie Foster played Egg Roulette with Jimmy Fallon.  Sadly, Clooney's and Robert's star power ain't what it used to be and adult films tend to disappoint in the box office.  I think State of Play would be a good equivalent for this one.  14.8 million; 38.9 million (14.8 million/)

The Darkness:  A family returns home from the Grand Canyon and they brought something supernatural home with them.  With Kevin Bacon, Radha Mitchell, and Jennifer Morrison (Limitless, Dexter) and from the production of Jason Blum.  I think it's telling that a) this has been under wrap for a while (previously known as 6 Miranda Drive) and b) nobody is doing publicity for this.  I'm smelling a stinker, folks.  Studio High Top's previous high was for Green Inferno which managed a 3.5 million dollar opening before fading fast to close just over 7 million.  Blum also produced Jem and the Holograms which opened to 1.4 million before sinking to 2.2 million.  I'll split the difference, but I think it's more likely to hit the floor than the ceiling.  2.4 million; 4.8 million (5 million/)

May 20:

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising:  Imagine the first Neighbors, but with a sorority taking over for the fraternity and Zac Efron switching sides to help out married Seth Rogen and Rose Byrne.  When they decided to do a sequel to Neighbors, producers had visions of 22 Jump Street and Pitch Perfect 2 dancing in their heads.  Maybe a nightmare of Horrible Bosses 2, perhaps.  But considering the film is being released in the same time period as the first one and has a decent amount of goodwill, I don't think the buzz will wear off fully.  Also helping is that it's being released 2 years after the first one with the same director, writing team, and most of the same cast which may give it a leg up on its competition.  I think a good equivalent might be Grown Ups 2.  50.2 million; 145.6 million (22.7 million/)

Angry Birds:  The birds get suspicious when pigs end up on Bird Island; their suspicions get confirmed when their eggs go missing.  Although off the peak of the game franchise, it could still do some damage in the box office thanks to good timing as much as anything.  Sony does have some experience with animation thanks to the Hotel Transylvania films so it won't go the way of Free Birds, The Nut Job, or even Legends of Oz.  But I still don't see this as a viable franchise.  Its ceiling may well be Epic (33.5 million); its floor looks like Turbo (21.3).  I smell another split, but not a lot of whistling.  27.4 million; 91.8 million (38 million/)

The Nice Guys:  Gosling, a private detective and Crowe, an enforcer, look for a missing woman that may have ties to the LA mafia.  I think the studio is going to try to make this happen and that can only be a good thing.  Crowe is capable of opening a film (Noah, Robin Hood), but outside of established franchises, his results are more mixed. Gosling's career high opener is 19.1 million for Crazy, Stupid Love; director Shane Black did do Iron Man 3, but he's probably more known for Kiss Kiss Bang Bang, a highly acclaimed indie.  Their work is going to be cut out for them.  13.0 million; 43.7 million (11 million/

May 27:

X Men: Apocalypse:  An ancient mutant wakes up and decides to take over the world using four horsemen, one of whom is none other than Magneto.  The good X-Men led by Professor X (James McAvoy) and his team of students join forces to stop them.  There's a reservoir of good will from the previous two films as Singer hopes to lead his team to a better outcome than Last Stand.  Middling critical reviews is not the best of signs, but I have to assume that all the stops will be made in a full court publicity press to hype people for the film.  I'm not sure on the legs as it feels much like Days of Future Past for better or worse.  100.3 million; 246.7 million (79.8 million/

Alice Through the Looking Glass:  Alice goes back in time to save the Mad Hatter from a terrible fate.  Alice did very well in the early days of 3D finishing with over $300 million.  But why wait 6 years for a sequel?  Plus, it doesn't help that Tim Burton skipped this one.  Best case scenario is it pulls a Prince Caspian which waited five years and lost about 10 million from The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe.  Worst case is it emulates The Huntsman and loses 2 thirds of the opening of Snow White and the Huntsman.  Critics will probably dump on this more than the middling reviews of the first one and I think audiences might not be as willing to see this, either.  63.7 million; 178.4 million (33.5 million/

June 3:

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows:  The turtles and Splinter along with April O'Neal team up to thwart Shredder who's hired a mad scientist to create mutants of his own.  The first film was critically reviled but managed to gross $191 million off of a $65.6 million dollar opener.  Worst case scenario is that it emulates the GI Joe Franchise and drops 26 percent to hit 48.6 million.  Best case scenario is that it emulates X Men: The Last Stand and rises 20 percent to reach 78.7 million.  It's a pretty wide range, so we'll just split the difference which means a small drop for film number 2.  63.7 million; 185.7 million (35.3 million/

Me Before You:  An unemployed woman agrees to be a personal caretaker of a young man who's a bitter paraplegic.  During their time together, the two fall what may be considered love.  A bit of good and bad news for this one.  The good is that both leads Emilia Clarke and Sam Claflin were both parts of lucrative franchises (Hunger Games for Claflin; Game of Thrones and Terminator Genisys for Clarke).  The bad is that neither one is really known as a film opener.  Claflin's one lead role was in The Quiet Ones which came and went at the box office two years ago.  A couple of recent entries which share some similar elements would be If I Stay which opened at 15.7 million and Paper Towns which opened at 12.7 million.  I'd expect a decent opening number, although it probably won't end up grossing the opening weekend of The Fault In Our Stars (48 million).  14.2 million; 40.8 million (18.7 million/

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping:  A rapper in the downslope of his career decides to rejoin his old boyband.  This comes from the Lonely Island team which departed SNL a few years ago.  If Key and Peele, who more recently departed their show, can only open to 9.5 million, then Popstar is in big trouble.  The ceiling for this one may well be co-director Akiva Schaffer's The Watch (12.8 million).  The floor is co-director Jorma Taccone's MacGruber (4 million) based on a SNL sketch.  I think this will hit a sour note at the box office.  7.2 million; 17.5 million (4.7 million/

June 10:

Now You See Me 2:  The Four Horsemen reunite and try to expose an unethical tech magnate while pulling off their most elaborate stunt to date.  Of the two sequels coming out this week, I think this will top Conjuring 2.  For starters, there is no critically reviled spinoff that may throw the franchise in question.  Second, the film adds several names to the ledger including Daniel Radcliffe and Sanaa Lathan.  The one subtraction of Isla Fischer (due to pregnancy) is replaced by the addition of Lizzy Caplan.  An equivalent that works for me is the Ocean's 11 and Ocean's 12 movies, which showed a slight increase for film 2.  30.2 million; 109.0 million (22.4 million/

Conjuring 2:  Ed and Lorraine Warren investigate another haunting, this time across the pond in England.  Although the film has the same stars and director (Now You See Me 2 switched from Louis Leterrier to John Chu), there's the matter of Annabelle which probably undid the goodwill from the first Conjuring film which received both critical and audience acclaim.  Not even James Wan can solve this conundrum which may go the way of X Men First Class by way of The Last Stand.  Maybe there's just enough for a trilogy?  22.4 million; 73.6 million (40.4 million/

Warcraft:  This will bomb as a film thanks to shoddy marketing and dull subject matter.  Outside of the LOTR movies, only Scorpion King did well enough to avoid being a box office bust (it helped that it was a spinoff of the Mummy franchise).  It lacks the drawing power of a famous name like Angelina Jolie or Milla Jovovich to get audiences not accustomed to the title to show up.  And it feels late in the franchise for a movie to finally appear so timeliness will not factor in either.  I think it will end up somewhere between Conan the Barbarian (10 million) and The Sorcerer's Apprentice (17.6 million).  Either way a disappointment, but considering there's no Disney ties or Nicolas Cage promising to ham it up, I'll go with the lower estimate.  13 million; 31.8 million (24.2 million/

June 17:

Finding Dory:  Remember the scene stealing blue tang fish from Finding Nemo?  Turns out she's looking for her parents, inspired by the father/son reunion in the previous film (spoilers).  Nemo and Marlin are along to help her out in her journey.  This is the fifth sequel in the Pixar studio's history (2 Toy Stories as well as Monsters and Cars sequels).  Nemo was more fondly thought of than Cars and arguably the same can be said of Monsters.  Probably not as fondly remembered as Toy Story, but I think this will play well due to both the memories of the first film and its location on the schedule.  One month after Angry Birds and two weeks before The BFG.  Suspect this will open big, although legs could be a question given Spielberg's involvement with the BFG.  Monsters University gained 20 million after a 12 year wait between films and Toy Story 3 capitalized with a 53 million dollar gain from the wide release of Toy Story 2 11 years later.  I think Dory will end up closer to Toy Story 3, but even I could be underestimating it.  106.7 million; 427.4 million

Central Intelligence:  Lethal CIA agent at his high school reunion recruits an accountant (and former classmate) for a fast paced, high stakes adventure involving numbers, satellites, and saving the world.  The spy comedy genre has been more miss and less hit since Austin Powers hung up his crushed velvet suit.  The only two live action films in recent memory to have done well are Melissa McCarthy's Spy and Get Smart which featured Dwayne Johnson (a look through animated films adds Despicable Me 2 and Cars 2 to the list).  Get Smart fell short of a $40 million opening; Spy only came through with $29 million.  Dwayne Johnson hasn't done all that well outside of franchise films (Fast and Furious, GI Joe, Journey to the Center of the Earth).  San Andreas which opened to $54.6 million last year might have helped him turn a corner.  Kevin Hart has done fairly well in live action comedies; 6 out of his last 7 films opened to at least $20 million.  As for equivalents to other films, Johnson has The Other Guys which opened to 35.5 million.  Hart has the Ride Along series (41.5 million for the first and 35.2 million for the second) which might give us a hint.  Maybe the inspired casting could be good for 5-10 million alone; I predict that both stars will continue to rise after this film.  42.7 million; 143.2 million

June 24:

Independence Day: Resurgence:  Following the events of the first film, Earth has built a defense program to defend the world.  But that defense is tested when aliens decide to attack again.  First film came out 20 years before this one and opened to the 2016 equivalent of $97.5 million on its way to an adjusted gross of $594.3 million.  So yeah, it was quite the blockbuster in its day.  But several people who led the charge back in 1996 are no shows; Will Smith is trying something different with Suicide Squad while Randy Quaid is hopefully taking root in Vermont by now.  Instead, part of the hopes leans on the shoulders of Liam Hemsworth who excelled in a lesser role in the Hunger Games movies, but struggled when cast as lead.  Fortunately, this type of film doesn't require a strong lead, but good special effects.  And with a budget of $200 million, those FX had better be great.  It's hard to find a similar equivalent, although Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull might be instructive as it opened with $100.1 million which was over $70 million ahead over the previous film.  On the other hand, there's Men in Black 3, which opened only $2.5 million higher despite a 10 year wait.  Finally, there's Vacation which racked up only $1.9 million more after an absence of 18 years.  I think ID:R will do better than Vacation, although it may end up closer to Men in Black 3 territory than Crystal Skull.  I could be wrong here, but I think this'll disappoint.  56.2 million; 184.3 million.

Free State of Jones:  A farmer joins forces with other farmers and slaves in declaring war against the Confederate Army in Jones County, Mississippi.  This may be interesting counterprogramming by relatively newcomer studio STX and perhaps a shot at awards for Matthew McConaughey and Gugu Mbatha-Raw.  I find it notable that none of Jones's equivalents opened at $25 million.  There's been a total of 2 films where McConaughey has opened to at least $25 million; both feature ensemble casts and are set in present day.  Other than Hunger Games, director Gary Gray hasn't opened a film above $21 million.  I could see STX setting a studio best (The Gift has highest opener with $11.9 million), yet still disappoint.  12.5 million; 35.2 million

The Shallows:  Blake Lively plays a surfer who hangs onto a rock not far from the Australian shore as a great white shark circles her.  Director Jaume Collet-Serra is known for his efforts with Liam Neeson, but he did direct a couple of horror films fairly early in his career (the terrible House of Wax remake as well as the middling Orphan) that opened to 12-13 million.  Lively hadn't done a horror film, but outside of Green Lantern and the Town has opened at a range from 10 million to 16 million.  Which dovetails nicely into a fairly decent opener.  Smart move to move it away from The Purge: Election Year.  $12 million; 30 million.

The Neon Demon:  So, this happened.  An aspiring model invites jealousy in a group of beauty obsessed women who desire her youth and vitality and are willing to do anything to get it.  Anything!  Director Nicholas Winding Refn is probably best known for Drive which proved to be a sleeper hit in 2011.  Decent female centric cast in this horror, but I'd guess that between the newness of the studio (Broad Green) and the lack of star power (Keanu Reeves is in this, but presumably as a supporting actor), I don't think this will do all that much unless there's a viral moment that I'm missing here.  Also, not convinced that this will truly open wide.  $2.1 million; 5.6 million.

July 1:

The BFG:  A girl befriends a Big Friendly Giant who is an outcast because he refuses to eat children.  This is extremely tricky to project.  You have an adaption of a book which may well have been overshadowed by James and the Giant Peach which was a box office disappointment in 1996 and the Chocolate Factory remake which was a giant smash despite looking strange.  Then you got the director Steven Spielberg which has been on the decline for a while if you overlook the fact that he can be a draw for a summer film outside of The Terminal.  Then you have the fact that the BFG in question is a CGI creation which has played all over the map from the recent Jungle Book smash to Alvin and the Chipmunks: Road Chip which eeked by despite opening to less than $15 million due to being part of a franchise and coming out during the holiday season.  For some reason, I'm seeing this similarly to what the Smurfs did 5 years ago when it opened to $35 million with some name actors, mainly doing voices.  With Fourth of July on the horizon, it should do better than that.  $45.1 million; 130.8 million.

The Legend of Tarzan:  We leap from one period adventure film based on a book to another one. In this one, Tarzan is out of the jungle and returned to civilization in England when he's called on to be a trade emissary at the Congo which might serve a corrupt Belgian captain well.  Definitely a far cry from the Disney film, that's for sure.  I'm sure they're hoping for a Jungle Book type smash as well, but this feels more like a John Carter/Jack the Giant Slayer type bust.  The exceptions require more starpower and/or an established franchise.  Plus, I'm sure that the BFG might eat into its potential some as well.  Overall, should be a disappointment.  $25.3 million; 61.3 million.

The Purge: Election Year:  A betrayal sends a presidential candidate opposing the Purge and her security guard out on the streets in what might be the final Purge.  Fortunately, they find a group of anti-Purgers sympathetic to the cause.  On the plus side, the same director that did the series is doing this one as well.  And it shares one character from the previous one.  But it may be running out of stories (the first one focused on a home invasion angle with one family's experiences while the second one dealt with a street level view of the Purge.  This one just seems random).  I think horror fans will be satiated with the Conjuring sequel and will vote down this political based thriller.  $16.6 million; 40.1 million.

July 8:

The Secret Life of Pets:  What do pets do when you're not at home?  Lucky you, this film shows what happens.  When thinking of a gold standard for animated fare, that would be Disney/Pixar.  Silver would probably be Dreamworks.  And Bronze would be Universal/Illuminated thanks to its Despicable Me films and The Lorax.  Outside of Hop (which opened with 37.5 million), Illumination films tend to be box office giants with openings anywhere from 56.4 million to 115.7 million.  I really dig the concept of this film because it seems universal (sorry for the unintentional pun).  Although I'd like to see a bit more of a gap between this and Finding Dory, it didn't really affect things when Despicable Me 2 (83.5 million) opened a mere two weeks after Monsters University (82.4 million).  I think it'll do well enough on the lower side of the range.  $63.3 million; 192.9 million.

Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates:  Two party hardy brothers place an ad for dates to their sister's wedding.  The ad is answered by two girls who can match their debauchery.  Hilarity ensues.  Once you take out the romcoms and other films that won't be a direct match for this, you got several films that mostly match the partying plot.  Best case scenario would be Bridesmaids (26.2 million) which proved to be a launching point for several comedians.  Worst case would be That's My Boy (13.5 million), which is arguably Adam Sandler's worst comedy outside of Jack and Jill.  The stars themselves probably won't be much of a factor with Kendrick and Efron arguably the largest ones.  Throw in the fact that the director is a first timer and I think this will skate in on the low end of expectations.  $11.7 million; 33.9 million

July 15:

Ghostbusters (2016):  Four women from differing walks of life (paranormal researcher, physicist, nuclear engineer, subway worker) team up to stop evil ghosts from possessing people in New York City.  This one has been getting all the buzz primarily from detractors upset about yet another remake (understandable) and having the cast replaced by women (not understandable) and its defenders who cite such works as Spy, The Heat, and Bridesmaids which have shown Paul Feig's ability to make women funny.  The original Ghostbusters opened to the 2016 equivalent of $35 million in 1984.  Director Feig has been operating at an opening range of $26-39 million since 2011.  Star Melissa McCarthy has taken off in the last five years with opening ranges from $11.6 million (This is 40 which she co-starred in) to $41.7 million (The Hangover 3 where she had a fairly sizable role).  Co-star Wiig is on the rise as well as she's been in Despicable Me 2 and How to Train Your Dragon off screen and The Martian and Anchorman 2 on screen.  Fifth star Chris Hemsworth has been mortal outside of films with Thor in it.  The anger surrounding it reminds me of Mad Max: Fury Road and that still managed to top its last entry by a wide margin.  Throw in the fact there's no direct competition this week and I think this will as well.  $64 million; 217 million

The Infiltrator:  A federal agent goes undercover to get inside Pablo Escobar's drug trafficking network.  His efforts require him to navigate a dangerous and deadly criminal world where one wrong move could cost him everything.  This comes from Broad Green who have had 3 of its 9 films gross $1 million and one large opener A Walk in the Woods which opened to $8 million.  Star Bryan Cranston has been in the box office smash Godzilla (2014), but is more known for his supporting work on the big screen and lead work on the small screen.  Co-star John Leguizamo (as a fellow agent) has been all over the map with his opening and grosses as well.  Director Brad Furman is known for Runner Runner (7.7 million) and The Lincoln Lawyer (13.2 million).  But both those films had larger stars (Runner had Ben Affleck and Lawyer had McConaughey).  I get they're trying to counter-program and all, but it feels like this one's going to be lost in the shuffle.  $6.6 million; 18.9 million

July 22:

Ice Age: Collision Course:  The efforts of Scrat to get that elusive acorn takes him out of Earth and cause calamity for the Herd remaining on Earth.  They have to stop a meteor shower from destroying their home.  Remember the example I did earlier for The Secret Lives of Pets?  Blue Sky would probably be 4th, just outside the medal stand.  But they have a good level of consistency with all their films opening to at least $33 million and grossing a minimum of $107.5 million.  No reason to see that change now.  The Ice Age series may be as long as a wooly mammoth's tooth by now, but when the fourth film can open to over $46 million, there's still life in it yet.  Although it might be hurt a tad by The Secret Life of Pets opening two weeks prior, it won't affect it much with Pete's Dragon the next kid friendly title on August 12.  Although there's been some franchise fatigue when it comes to sequels, animated ones don't seem to be affected yet.  $44.1 million; 152.6 million.

Star Trek Beyond:  When aliens attack the Enterprise forcing the crew to abandon ship, they face a new ruthless foe.  The Star Trek series has been a mostly successful reboot of the series, but some things are causing the klaxon to ring on this one.  One, there have been some reshoots reportedly to include new cast signee Shohreh Aghdashloo in what I suspect might be similar to reshoots involving Fantastic Four.  Two, JJ Abrams has left the steady helm to be replaced by Justin Lin who may be experienced with action films (The Fast and Furious series), but who's new to Star Trek.  Three, a teaser trailer appeared to be heavily criticized by fans when it came out (new trailers have been better received).  Remember what I said about sequel fatigue with Ice Age: Collision Course?  I think it will happen here.  $39 million; 120.9 million

Lights Out:  A woman returns to her childhood home to help her younger brother face his fears of the dark, but sinister spirits attached to their mother threaten to wreak havoc on the whole family.  Supernatural horror has been fairly consistently successful over the last few years.  Its exceptions tend to be with films with no known names or lack internet buzz.  Sadly, the largest name involved is James Wan who produced this one.  But I don't think even that will help a film that's low on buzz or sounds suspiciously like Darkness Falls.  Throw in a director making his theatrical debut and this could struggle to match The Darkness ($5 million).  I don't think it will.  $4.5 million; 10.4 million.

July 29:

Jason Bourne:  Damon, Matt Damon is back and in our service as he makes his first appearance after a several year absence due to instability.  It's nice to see Bourne back and the re-emergence of Matt Damon and Paul Greengrass should renew a case of goodwill lost by Bourne Legacy.  There may be some fatigue setting in with the original trilogy telling pretty much Jason Bourne's whole story, but I guess that didn't stop James Bond from growing in stature.  $51.9 million; 161.9 million

Bad Moms:  A woman stressed out despite a perfect life joins forces with two other mothers in the same predicament to loosen up and have fun which pits them against "perfect mom" Gwendolyn.  There has been a trend of late towards summer comedies with women at the core.  Openings for those comedies range from $22 million for Tammy to $39 million for The Heat.  Without McCarthy, we'll just have to make do with Mila Kunis (Ted), Christina Applegate (Vacation/Anchorman) and Kristen Bell (Forgetting Sarah Marshall) who have all had experience in this genre.  Red Band Trailer was an unexpected hit making me think STX (the studio involved) might have a career high.  And so they shall.  $24.5 million; 77.8 million.

Nerve:  A girl joins an online game of truth or dare (OK, mainly dare) but finds her game influenced by those watching it.  This comes from the director of Catfish and Paranormal Activities 3-4.  The concept sounds interesting (it turns out the challenges involve herself and a popular male contestant) and this could easily land the buzz that is eluding Lights Out.  There's a lack of buzz right now, but that could change.  I don't think you can use the director's past as a guide because this isn't based on a successful franchise and this is going wide.  I see this as a less successful Unfriended, hopefully with better critical response.  $9.5 million; 20.4 million

August 5:

Suicide Squad:  A group of imprisoned super-villains is recruited by a black ops government agency to do secret missions to save the world from an unknown but powerful threat.  After what could have been a disastrous start following the viewing of the Joker, the film itself seems to have righted the ship with a test screening seeming to have gone well.  There have been news of reshoots, presumably to add more action and make it more PG-13.  The good news is that this film is probably going to be a hit for DC Comics.  The bad news is that superhero fatigue and the fact that this won't hit an R might run off some of those who checked out Deadpool.  The August opening record is Guardians of the Galaxy which hit 94.3 million.  I don't think Suicide Squad will get there, but second place is easily doable (currently owned by Bourne Ultimatum with 69.3 million)  82.5 million; 240.6 million

Nine Lives:  Stuffy businessman ends up trapped inside the body of his family's pet cat.  He has one week to reconcile or be permanently stuck as the cat.  Kevin Spacey as a cat is a concept that sounds interesting to me.  But it might not appeal to a lot of people.  The ceiling for live action family comedies involving animals may be Dolphin Tale 2 which opened to 15.9 million.  But a more realistic look at talking animals family movies gives us a more likely result:  somewhere between Underdog (11.6 million) and Cats and Dogs 2 (12.3 million).  I'll go low which means Nine Lives won't be pick of the litter.  11.8 million; 42.5 million

The Founder:  Biopic about Ray Kroc, a man who took a concept of hamburgers for cheap and turned it into a multi-billion dollar business.  Not sure what this is doing in August, although if critical raves are strong for this Michael Keaton starring film, then Oscar nominations might be coming in 2017.  It has to be maybe getting away from other nominees, because Michael Keaton cannot open films like he once could.  Between Spotlight and Birdman, the combined wide screen debuts was just under 7 million.  The founding of McDonalds could prove to be a more popular concept than a washed up Hollywood actor attempting to make it on Broadway or Boston reporters unraveling a scandal in the Catholic Church.  Director John Lee Hancock is best known for The Rookie and Blind Side, although his box office openings are all over the map.  I don't see this selling too many hamburgers at the box office.  7 million; 20 million

August 12:

Pete's Dragon:  A daughter of a friendly woodcarver investigates an orphan's claims that there's a friendly dragon in the woods.  Perhaps there's dreams of The Jungle Book (100+ million) or Cinderella (67.9 million) in their heads when they agreed to do this.  Reality is though probably going to be harsher.  Between the overuse of CGI leads in films and the plethora of family films out (Ice Age: Collision Course, Nine Lives, Secret Life of Pets, Finding Dory), I think this one will disappoint Disney.  $39.5 million; 138.7 million

Sausage Party:  Food lives happily and blissfully in a grocery store hoping to end up in someone's home until one day, a sausage makes a terrifying discovery.  R-rated animation featuring an all star cast (Seth Rogen, Edward Norton, and Kristen Wiig).  There's a chance this could be a breakout hit.  I think it falls a bit short, although I could see this doing well once it hits home video/streaming.  $23.5 million; 82.3 million

Florence Foster Jenkins:  New York heiress becomes an opera singer even though she's not known for her singing ability.  This year's August bone for adults involves Meryl Streep for the second year in a row.  But the good news is that early critical response is rather strong, noting on the performances of Streep, Hugh Grant as Florence's manager and Simon Helberg as her accompanying pianist.  It'll be no Julie and Julia (20 million), but it'll do better than Ricki and the Flash (6.6 million) at least.  $13.8 million; 54.3 million.

August 19:

Kubo and the Two Strings:  A boy takes care of his sick mother but a spirit of the past decides to take revenge in the present leading him on a journey to recover his late father's Samurai magical suit of armor.  I was all but ready to ask what this was doing here in the dog days of summer.  But then I learned this was from the Laika production team that gave us Coraline, ParaNorman, and The Boxtrolls.  Films that have average openings from $14-17 million.  I'm not sure this will win this week at the box office due to the plethora of options available, but it should be the top new film of the week.  $17.0 million; 52.5 million.

Ben Hur:  A Jewish nobleman is enslaved but survives long enough to take on his traitorous Roman former best friend.  It's a 3D film that is surprisingly cheap considering the subject matter and computer effects ($70 million).  And without a big name to sell it, I think this might be Abe Lincoln: Vampire Killer 2.0 (16.3 million) considering the most notable name is director Timur Bekmambetov.  $14.0 million; 32.2 million

The Space Between Us:  A human teen born on Mars becomes online friends with a Colorado teen.  He decides to visit and is amazed by the place, but it becomes a race against time when his organs start to fail.  Studio STX Entertainment has had experiences with 4 films so far (soon to be 6 with Free State of Jones and Bad Moms).  This feels like a YA cross between The Fault in Our Stars and The Host.  There aren't many relevant sci-fi romances available to compare this to, but the number of YA films that busted are pretty high.  Two out of three ain't bad, STX.  $10.7 million; 27.1 million

War Dogs:  Two arms dealers get a job supplying weapons to American allies in the Afghanistan war, but soon find themselves over their heads.  I have a feeling that Todd Phillips's name will be all over the ads.  He's probably the box office winning draw thanks to the Hangover series and Due Date.  Jonah Hill has had a string of successes as the sidekick of the lead character or as the co-lead.  The most recent film that he starred in was The Sitter (9.9 million).  Neither is Miles Teller a huge draw.  Although he's drawn bank thanks to the Divergent series and the critically reviled Fantastic Four remake, his two leads which had wide releases were in That Awkward Moment and 21 and Over (8.7-8.8 million).   The big question is whether this film will lead to Phillip's lowest opener (School for Scoundrels had only 8.6 million).  I think the answer will be no, but I don't see this doing very much.  $10.0 million; 26.9 million 

August 26:

Hands of Stone:  Another film that much like the Founder I have to assume is here due to trying to stay away from the crowded awards season.  The biopic film focuses on the life of Roberto Duran.  Boxing films have been doing a bit better of late thanks to Creed and, to a lesser extent, Southpaw.  Can't speak of its Oscar chances, but presuming that it indeed opens wide and stays where it is, I think this could be a box office surprise KO.  $17.5 million; 58.9 million.

Mechanic: Resurrection:  Following the events of the first film, "mechanic" Arthur Bishop retires until foes kidnap his life's love springing him back in action to commit three assassinations in three different continents making them look like accidents.  I predict he'll also be looking to kill the love interest's kidnappers, just because.  Statham has been consistent with his wide release films opening to at least $6.9 million since The Bank Job in 2008.   But hands up if anyone was looking forward to a second Mechanic film.  Anyone?   It feels like the sequel to The Woman in Black in that it's probably unnecessary and features a mostly new cast.  At least Statham is in this one which should ease the blow.  $8.2 million; 21 million.

Don't Breathe:  Teen delinquent promises younger sister that they can run away together.  To get the money, she, her boyfriend and their friend decide to rob a blind man's place which has a safe.  Unfortunately, they learn the blind man is actually a serial killer with heightened listening abilities.  This shares the director and star of The Evil Dead remake (25.8 million).  But I don't think this will have the same results.  Not close.  $8 million; 20.3 million

Oscar Predictions 2016

And welcome to the blog that's a companion piece to my upcoming YouTube channel.  I've decided to kick things off with a look at the Oscars taking place tomorrow night on ABC.

Let's tackle the elephant in the room.  #OscarsSoWhite.  I get and understand the frustration that actors/directors of color feel after two years in a row of being more or less blanked out of nominations (there is Mexican Alejandro Inarritu in the director's category).  And it's not like there haven't been deserving candidates (last year brought the actor/director combo of David Oyelowo and Ava Duvarney; this year lost out on Best Supporting Actor nominee Idris Elba as well as possible nominees in Michael B. Jordan, Benicio Del Toro, and Ryan Coogler).  But it's going to have to be more than just increasing efforts in diversifying the voting base; studios have to be willing to look beyond the four quadrant pictures and tell compelling stories as well as being more diverse in its choices of actors and directors.  Only by doing so can we put this controversy behind us and go back to celebrating movies.

Alright, with that now behind us, we can go and tackle the list of predicted winners.  I'll list the category and winner first followed by my thoughts on the field.  And since I'm only listing the winner, it should be easy enough that not even Steve Harvey can botch this:

Warming Up:

Best Original Screenplay:  Spotlight

Although cases could be made for Straight Outta Compton (its one nomination), Ex Machina (for being an innovative sci-fi film) and Inside Out (for being an animated film about feelings), I'll start off the night going with the one movie that's swept all the writing awards.  Not only does it get into the journalists who broke the Boston scandal involving a Catholic priest and his inappropriate behavior with children, but it also allows director Tom McCarty to not go home empty handed.

Best Adapted Screenplay:  The Big Short

Much like Spotlight, this has been sweeping the precursor awards left and right.  The only other nominee who could have been a factor would have been the astronaut rescuing thriller The Martian, but this tale exploring the efforts of four investors who decide to take on the big banks by shorting the housing market following the bubble of 2007 has been dominant and won't be denied.  Plus, nominated director Adam McKay will be compensated for his loss in his big category.

Visual Effects:  Mad Max: Fury Road

Usually, this award goes to a Best Picture contender which eliminates Star Wars: The Force Awakens.  The Martian is out because nobody is really talking about their effects months later.  Although the Revenant had that memorable bear sequence, I'd bet that the voters will remember the effects in Mad Max: Fury Road more.

Sound Editing:  Mad Max: Fury Road

I see this as a race between noisy blockbusters Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Mad Max: Fury Road as voters generally go for the big bangs here.  I'll lean towards the Best Picture nominee.

Sound Mixing:  The Revenant

And here, they'll go with Big Picture nominee The Revenant.  Usually, the winners of the sound categories go to two separate films.  But if there's a sweep, it's more likely to come from Mad Max than from Star Wars.

Production Design:  Mad Max: Fury Road

Although wins went to The Revenant and The Martian, I'm going with the one film that can claim wins in the Art Directors Guild and BAFTA (the British Academy Awards).  And that would be the film that might have reinvented the action genre.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:  Mad Max: Fury Road

The 100 Year Old Man's award was becoming an Oscar nominee.  Oscar voters will side with the film that put out the greater, more showy work and that would be Furiosa and Mad Max.

Best Costume Design:  Mad Max: Fury Road

Essentially a two film race (although I think it might not be unprecedented to see Carol or The Danish Girl take this due to the category's past in going with period pieces), I think Mad Max will take it over Cinderella for two reasons.  One, it's swept most of the awards.  Two, Sandy Powell voters will be split between the fairy tale knockout (and other favorite) Cinderella and the period based Carol meaning that the post-apocalyptic action film will prevail.

Cinematography:  The Revenant

Another year, another loss for Roger Deakens (this time for Sicario).  But it's going to be the film name that voters will see and they'll choose Emmanuel Lubezki for his third straight win (others were Gravity and Birdman).  Considering this revenge tale is more or less a Western, this makes sense.

Let's Take a SHORT Break:

Best Live Action Short:  Everything Will Be Okay

The shorts are a real crapshoot this year.  But generally, they go with either comedic shorts (Ave Maria) or children in peril ones (Shok, Everything Will Be Okay).  At the end, I give it to Okay mainly due to the plot (a parent's worse fears are realized when a father kidnaps his child from his ex-wife) and the fact that NOBODY ELSE IS PICKING IT.  Plus, its director won a student Oscar and wouldn't surprise me to pick up the real deal.

Best Documentary Short:  Chau: Beyond the Lines

Winners in this category tend to be inspirational which knocks out longshot Last Day of Freedom and Pakastani honor killing doc A Girl in the River.  Of the remaining three, I'll go with the heartwarming Chau which has a kid disabled by Agent Orange who aspires to be a professional clothing designer.  But the Holocaust doc Claude Lanzman or the Ebola doctor doc Body Team 12 could walk away with the Oscar themselves.

Best Animated Short:  World of Tomorrow

It's really down to this versus the more sentimental Bear Story.  Although Pixar created Sanjay's Super Team, it's been a while since they last won this category.  At the end, I think they'll go for the film that blew me away when I just saw it recently which is a look at a future clone talking to a little girl.  It's humorous and packs a bit of an emotional wallop.

It's All About the MUSIC:

Best Score:  The Hateful Eight

With this win, legendary score creator Ennio Morricone (The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly) finally earns his first Oscar (his previous one was a lifetime achievement award).  Bridge of Spies and/or Star Wars: The Force Awakens are other contenders in this category, but I think they'll give it to the Quentin Tarantino western leading to a guaranteed standing ovation.

Best Original Song:  Earned It from 50 Shades of Grey

I think it's going to come down to the three songs being performed at the Oscars, with apologies to Manta Ray and Simple Song #3.  Writing's on the Wall was a mediocre Bond theme, mainly due to Sam Smith's refusal to control his voice (a song without percussion practically requires the singer to let us know when we reach the emotional climax and Wall never did).  It leaves Til It Happens to You which has received some sentiment due to it being Diane Warren's eighth nomination (she's 0 for 7 so far) and Earned It which won a Grammy award.  Considering the best part of the egregious 50 Shades was its choice of music and that they don't list the producer/singer among the choices, I think the Weeknd takes it.

The Rest of the Preliminaries:

Best Film Editing:  The Big Short

I admit that it's more or less a coin flip between Mad Max: Fury Road and The Big Short.  Having said that, Oscar voters tend to go with flashier editing and The Big Short will prevail.

Best Animated Film:  Inside Out

With apologies to Shaun the Sheep Movie, When Marnie Was There, and Boy and the World, it's a two film race.  Although Anomalisa was a critical favorite earning raves for its unusual style and subject manner, Inside Out was also critically beloved and may be one of Pixar's best due to its expert look inside the head of a small child.  This will be their compensation for probably being left off the Best Picture list.

Best Documentary:  Amy

A good case could be made for The Look of Silence, a film about an optician looking for the murderers of his brother which is a pseudo-sequel to The Act of Killing.  And the documentary Cartel Land is another potential spoiler due to its look at vigilante groups on both sides of the US-Mexican border taking on drug cartels.  But I think the Oscar will go to the documentary examining the talent and troubled life of Amy Winehouse, which has earned box office dollars, critical raves, and even an endorsement of Mark Ronson who worked with Winehouse on acclaimed album Back to Black.  Although apparently her father isn't a fan of the film, I think that won't matter to voters.

Best Foreign Film:  Son of Saul

As a general rule, don't bet against films dealing with the Holocaust (I know, we went against that rule with Best Documentary Short, but whatever).  And although Mustang which is about Turkish sisters rebelling against arranged marriages could prove to be a spoiler (French films have won 12 Oscars in this category, trailing only Italian ones), I think there's enough freshness and unique spin that this should prevail.

The Big Show

Best Supporting Actress:  Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, for her turn in Steve Jobs, could prove to be a spoiler.  But I'll go with the critical darling who's won both the Critic's Choice or the SGA awards.  Hollywood loves to reward a young ingenue and Vikander should prevail.

Best Supporting Actor:  Christian Bale, The Big Short

Sylvester Stallone has been leading the pack most of the way and it would be a very sentimental story to see him triumph over adversity as Rocky Balboa.  But as a general rule, there's one shocker in the acting categories and with DiCaprio and Larson as locks and Vikander as a favorite in Best Supporting Actress, I think it happens here.  I don't think that Mark Rylance will prevail as Bridge of Spies's moment has passed.  If Hardy somehow wins here, then the Revenant should be sweeping its way through the field.  But I doubt it.  So it comes down to Ruffalo and Bale.  And I think they'll go with Bale who gave the best performance in The Big Short over Ruffalo, who just seemed to be part of an ensemble.

Best Actress:  Brie Larson, The Room

It started with a mix of contenders including Cate Blanchett as a woman dealing with being a lesbian at a less tolerant time and Saoirse Ronan (pronounced Ser-Shay, thanks to help from fellow Canadian Ryan Gosling).  But the awards and tea leaves have been spelling out in favor of Larson for a while now and it makes perfect sense.  Her role as a mother trying to raise her child while being confined in a shed by kidnappers has the stuff that Oscar voters go for.

Best Actor:  Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

One could argue the merits of Bryan Cranston as Dalton Trumbo or Matt Damon as the astronaut left on Earth or even Michael Fassbender as the mercurial Steve Jobs.  But Leo is perceived as overdue and by the time he accepts his Oscar, we won't have to hear any more of the "When's he going to win" nonsense that also plagued long curses by the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs.

Best Director:  Alejandro Irranitu, The Revenant

There are five directors nominated, but in the end it comes down to two.  George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road, a film that reinvigorated the action genre and perhaps served as a career best achievement.  And Irranitu, who won last year for Birdman and threatens to be the third director to have won two Oscars in a row.  Considering he won the DGA's, I'll go with Irranitu although I wouldn't be shocked to hear Miller's name.

Best Picture:  The Big Short

It's been a real horse race between three films.  The Revenant, which focuses on one man's quest for revenge against the folks who left him for dead after a bear mauling while trying to make his way back home to his family, Spotlight, and The Big Short.  Any of them can win.  But at the end, the best predictor is the Producer Guild's Awards or the PGAs which replicates the preferential ballot that the Academy uses.  And the winner of that award was The Big Short which should prevail as well.

Other Predictions:

Last person shown in In Memoriam segment:  Christopher Lee
How Many standing Ovations total:  5
Chris Rock's Opening Monologue:  Over 8 minutes and 45 seconds.  I think it'll be closer to 9 and a half to 10 minutes.
Red Dress wearer:  Rachel McAdams
Best Picture Nominees going empty handed:  Brooklyn appears to be safe as does The Martian.  Bridge of Spies is questionable, due to Rylance's chances of taking Supporting Actor.
BB-8 Appearance:  I vote no appearance.