And welcome to the blog that's a companion piece to my upcoming YouTube channel. I've decided to kick things off with a look at the Oscars taking place tomorrow night on ABC.
Let's tackle the elephant in the room. #OscarsSoWhite. I get and understand the frustration that actors/directors of color feel after two years in a row of being more or less blanked out of nominations (there is Mexican Alejandro Inarritu in the director's category). And it's not like there haven't been deserving candidates (last year brought the actor/director combo of David Oyelowo and Ava Duvarney; this year lost out on Best Supporting Actor nominee Idris Elba as well as possible nominees in Michael B. Jordan, Benicio Del Toro, and Ryan Coogler). But it's going to have to be more than just increasing efforts in diversifying the voting base; studios have to be willing to look beyond the four quadrant pictures and tell compelling stories as well as being more diverse in its choices of actors and directors. Only by doing so can we put this controversy behind us and go back to celebrating movies.
Alright, with that now behind us, we can go and tackle the list of predicted winners. I'll list the category and winner first followed by my thoughts on the field. And since I'm only listing the winner, it should be easy enough that not even Steve Harvey can botch this:
Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Although cases could be made for Straight Outta Compton (its one nomination), Ex Machina (for being an innovative sci-fi film) and Inside Out (for being an animated film about feelings), I'll start off the night going with the one movie that's swept all the writing awards. Not only does it get into the journalists who broke the Boston scandal involving a Catholic priest and his inappropriate behavior with children, but it also allows director Tom McCarty to not go home empty handed.
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Much like Spotlight, this has been sweeping the precursor awards left and right. The only other nominee who could have been a factor would have been the astronaut rescuing thriller The Martian, but this tale exploring the efforts of four investors who decide to take on the big banks by shorting the housing market following the bubble of 2007 has been dominant and won't be denied. Plus, nominated director Adam McKay will be compensated for his loss in his big category.
Visual Effects: Mad Max: Fury Road
Usually, this award goes to a Best Picture contender which eliminates Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The Martian is out because nobody is really talking about their effects months later. Although the Revenant had that memorable bear sequence, I'd bet that the voters will remember the effects in Mad Max: Fury Road more.
Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
I see this as a race between noisy blockbusters Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Mad Max: Fury Road as voters generally go for the big bangs here. I'll lean towards the Best Picture nominee.
Sound Mixing: The Revenant
And here, they'll go with Big Picture nominee The Revenant. Usually, the winners of the sound categories go to two separate films. But if there's a sweep, it's more likely to come from Mad Max than from Star Wars.
Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Although wins went to The Revenant and The Martian, I'm going with the one film that can claim wins in the Art Directors Guild and BAFTA (the British Academy Awards). And that would be the film that might have reinvented the action genre.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100 Year Old Man's award was becoming an Oscar nominee. Oscar voters will side with the film that put out the greater, more showy work and that would be Furiosa and Mad Max.
Best Costume Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Essentially a two film race (although I think it might not be unprecedented to see Carol or The Danish Girl take this due to the category's past in going with period pieces), I think Mad Max will take it over Cinderella for two reasons. One, it's swept most of the awards. Two, Sandy Powell voters will be split between the fairy tale knockout (and other favorite) Cinderella and the period based Carol meaning that the post-apocalyptic action film will prevail.
Cinematography: The Revenant
Another year, another loss for Roger Deakens (this time for Sicario). But it's going to be the film name that voters will see and they'll choose Emmanuel Lubezki for his third straight win (others were Gravity and Birdman). Considering this revenge tale is more or less a Western, this makes sense.
Best Live Action Short: Everything Will Be Okay
The shorts are a real crapshoot this year. But generally, they go with either comedic shorts (Ave Maria) or children in peril ones (Shok, Everything Will Be Okay). At the end, I give it to Okay mainly due to the plot (a parent's worse fears are realized when a father kidnaps his child from his ex-wife) and the fact that NOBODY ELSE IS PICKING IT. Plus, its director won a student Oscar and wouldn't surprise me to pick up the real deal.
Best Documentary Short: Chau: Beyond the Lines
Winners in this category tend to be inspirational which knocks out longshot Last Day of Freedom and Pakastani honor killing doc A Girl in the River. Of the remaining three, I'll go with the heartwarming Chau which has a kid disabled by Agent Orange who aspires to be a professional clothing designer. But the Holocaust doc Claude Lanzman or the Ebola doctor doc Body Team 12 could walk away with the Oscar themselves.
Best Animated Short: World of Tomorrow
It's really down to this versus the more sentimental Bear Story. Although Pixar created Sanjay's Super Team, it's been a while since they last won this category. At the end, I think they'll go for the film that blew me away when I just saw it recently which is a look at a future clone talking to a little girl. It's humorous and packs a bit of an emotional wallop.
Best Score: The Hateful Eight
With this win, legendary score creator Ennio Morricone (The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly) finally earns his first Oscar (his previous one was a lifetime achievement award). Bridge of Spies and/or Star Wars: The Force Awakens are other contenders in this category, but I think they'll give it to the Quentin Tarantino western leading to a guaranteed standing ovation.
Best Original Song: Earned It from 50 Shades of Grey
I think it's going to come down to the three songs being performed at the Oscars, with apologies to Manta Ray and Simple Song #3. Writing's on the Wall was a mediocre Bond theme, mainly due to Sam Smith's refusal to control his voice (a song without percussion practically requires the singer to let us know when we reach the emotional climax and Wall never did). It leaves Til It Happens to You which has received some sentiment due to it being Diane Warren's eighth nomination (she's 0 for 7 so far) and Earned It which won a Grammy award. Considering the best part of the egregious 50 Shades was its choice of music and that they don't list the producer/singer among the choices, I think the Weeknd takes it.
Best Film Editing: The Big Short
I admit that it's more or less a coin flip between Mad Max: Fury Road and The Big Short. Having said that, Oscar voters tend to go with flashier editing and The Big Short will prevail.
Best Animated Film: Inside Out
With apologies to Shaun the Sheep Movie, When Marnie Was There, and Boy and the World, it's a two film race. Although Anomalisa was a critical favorite earning raves for its unusual style and subject manner, Inside Out was also critically beloved and may be one of Pixar's best due to its expert look inside the head of a small child. This will be their compensation for probably being left off the Best Picture list.
Best Documentary: Amy
A good case could be made for The Look of Silence, a film about an optician looking for the murderers of his brother which is a pseudo-sequel to The Act of Killing. And the documentary Cartel Land is another potential spoiler due to its look at vigilante groups on both sides of the US-Mexican border taking on drug cartels. But I think the Oscar will go to the documentary examining the talent and troubled life of Amy Winehouse, which has earned box office dollars, critical raves, and even an endorsement of Mark Ronson who worked with Winehouse on acclaimed album Back to Black. Although apparently her father isn't a fan of the film, I think that won't matter to voters.
Best Foreign Film: Son of Saul
As a general rule, don't bet against films dealing with the Holocaust (I know, we went against that rule with Best Documentary Short, but whatever). And although Mustang which is about Turkish sisters rebelling against arranged marriages could prove to be a spoiler (French films have won 12 Oscars in this category, trailing only Italian ones), I think there's enough freshness and unique spin that this should prevail.
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander,Ex Machina The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, for her turn in Steve Jobs, could prove to be a spoiler. But I'll go with the critical darling who's won both the Critic's Choice or the SGA awards. Hollywood loves to reward a young ingenue and Vikander should prevail.
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Big Short
Sylvester Stallone has been leading the pack most of the way and it would be a very sentimental story to see him triumph over adversity as Rocky Balboa. But as a general rule, there's one shocker in the acting categories and with DiCaprio and Larson as locks and Vikander as a favorite in Best Supporting Actress, I think it happens here. I don't think that Mark Rylance will prevail as Bridge of Spies's moment has passed. If Hardy somehow wins here, then the Revenant should be sweeping its way through the field. But I doubt it. So it comes down to Ruffalo and Bale. And I think they'll go with Bale who gave the best performance in The Big Short over Ruffalo, who just seemed to be part of an ensemble.
Best Actress: Brie Larson, The Room
It started with a mix of contenders including Cate Blanchett as a woman dealing with being a lesbian at a less tolerant time and Saoirse Ronan (pronounced Ser-Shay, thanks to help from fellow Canadian Ryan Gosling). But the awards and tea leaves have been spelling out in favor of Larson for a while now and it makes perfect sense. Her role as a mother trying to raise her child while being confined in a shed by kidnappers has the stuff that Oscar voters go for.
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
One could argue the merits of Bryan Cranston as Dalton Trumbo or Matt Damon as the astronaut left on Earth or even Michael Fassbender as the mercurial Steve Jobs. But Leo is perceived as overdue and by the time he accepts his Oscar, we won't have to hear any more of the "When's he going to win" nonsense that also plagued long curses by the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs.
Best Director: Alejandro Irranitu, The Revenant
There are five directors nominated, but in the end it comes down to two. George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road, a film that reinvigorated the action genre and perhaps served as a career best achievement. And Irranitu, who won last year for Birdman and threatens to be the third director to have won two Oscars in a row. Considering he won the DGA's, I'll go with Irranitu although I wouldn't be shocked to hear Miller's name.
Best Picture: The Big Short
It's been a real horse race between three films. The Revenant, which focuses on one man's quest for revenge against the folks who left him for dead after a bear mauling while trying to make his way back home to his family, Spotlight, and The Big Short. Any of them can win. But at the end, the best predictor is the Producer Guild's Awards or the PGAs which replicates the preferential ballot that the Academy uses. And the winner of that award was The Big Short which should prevail as well.
Last person shown in In Memoriam segment: Christopher Lee
How Many standing Ovations total: 5
Chris Rock's Opening Monologue: Over 8 minutes and 45 seconds. I think it'll be closer to 9 and a half to 10 minutes.
Red Dress wearer: Rachel McAdams
Best Picture Nominees going empty handed: Brooklyn appears to be safe as does The Martian. Bridge of Spies is questionable, due to Rylance's chances of taking Supporting Actor.
BB-8 Appearance: I vote no appearance.
Let's tackle the elephant in the room. #OscarsSoWhite. I get and understand the frustration that actors/directors of color feel after two years in a row of being more or less blanked out of nominations (there is Mexican Alejandro Inarritu in the director's category). And it's not like there haven't been deserving candidates (last year brought the actor/director combo of David Oyelowo and Ava Duvarney; this year lost out on Best Supporting Actor nominee Idris Elba as well as possible nominees in Michael B. Jordan, Benicio Del Toro, and Ryan Coogler). But it's going to have to be more than just increasing efforts in diversifying the voting base; studios have to be willing to look beyond the four quadrant pictures and tell compelling stories as well as being more diverse in its choices of actors and directors. Only by doing so can we put this controversy behind us and go back to celebrating movies.
Alright, with that now behind us, we can go and tackle the list of predicted winners. I'll list the category and winner first followed by my thoughts on the field. And since I'm only listing the winner, it should be easy enough that not even Steve Harvey can botch this:
Warming Up:
Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Although cases could be made for Straight Outta Compton (its one nomination), Ex Machina (for being an innovative sci-fi film) and Inside Out (for being an animated film about feelings), I'll start off the night going with the one movie that's swept all the writing awards. Not only does it get into the journalists who broke the Boston scandal involving a Catholic priest and his inappropriate behavior with children, but it also allows director Tom McCarty to not go home empty handed.
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Much like Spotlight, this has been sweeping the precursor awards left and right. The only other nominee who could have been a factor would have been the astronaut rescuing thriller The Martian, but this tale exploring the efforts of four investors who decide to take on the big banks by shorting the housing market following the bubble of 2007 has been dominant and won't be denied. Plus, nominated director Adam McKay will be compensated for his loss in his big category.
Visual Effects: Mad Max: Fury Road
Usually, this award goes to a Best Picture contender which eliminates Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The Martian is out because nobody is really talking about their effects months later. Although the Revenant had that memorable bear sequence, I'd bet that the voters will remember the effects in Mad Max: Fury Road more.
Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
I see this as a race between noisy blockbusters Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Mad Max: Fury Road as voters generally go for the big bangs here. I'll lean towards the Best Picture nominee.
Sound Mixing: The Revenant
And here, they'll go with Big Picture nominee The Revenant. Usually, the winners of the sound categories go to two separate films. But if there's a sweep, it's more likely to come from Mad Max than from Star Wars.
Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Although wins went to The Revenant and The Martian, I'm going with the one film that can claim wins in the Art Directors Guild and BAFTA (the British Academy Awards). And that would be the film that might have reinvented the action genre.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100 Year Old Man's award was becoming an Oscar nominee. Oscar voters will side with the film that put out the greater, more showy work and that would be Furiosa and Mad Max.
Best Costume Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Essentially a two film race (although I think it might not be unprecedented to see Carol or The Danish Girl take this due to the category's past in going with period pieces), I think Mad Max will take it over Cinderella for two reasons. One, it's swept most of the awards. Two, Sandy Powell voters will be split between the fairy tale knockout (and other favorite) Cinderella and the period based Carol meaning that the post-apocalyptic action film will prevail.
Cinematography: The Revenant
Another year, another loss for Roger Deakens (this time for Sicario). But it's going to be the film name that voters will see and they'll choose Emmanuel Lubezki for his third straight win (others were Gravity and Birdman). Considering this revenge tale is more or less a Western, this makes sense.
Let's Take a SHORT Break:
Best Live Action Short: Everything Will Be Okay
The shorts are a real crapshoot this year. But generally, they go with either comedic shorts (Ave Maria) or children in peril ones (Shok, Everything Will Be Okay). At the end, I give it to Okay mainly due to the plot (a parent's worse fears are realized when a father kidnaps his child from his ex-wife) and the fact that NOBODY ELSE IS PICKING IT. Plus, its director won a student Oscar and wouldn't surprise me to pick up the real deal.
Best Documentary Short: Chau: Beyond the Lines
Winners in this category tend to be inspirational which knocks out longshot Last Day of Freedom and Pakastani honor killing doc A Girl in the River. Of the remaining three, I'll go with the heartwarming Chau which has a kid disabled by Agent Orange who aspires to be a professional clothing designer. But the Holocaust doc Claude Lanzman or the Ebola doctor doc Body Team 12 could walk away with the Oscar themselves.
Best Animated Short: World of Tomorrow
It's really down to this versus the more sentimental Bear Story. Although Pixar created Sanjay's Super Team, it's been a while since they last won this category. At the end, I think they'll go for the film that blew me away when I just saw it recently which is a look at a future clone talking to a little girl. It's humorous and packs a bit of an emotional wallop.
It's All About the MUSIC:
Best Score: The Hateful Eight
With this win, legendary score creator Ennio Morricone (The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly) finally earns his first Oscar (his previous one was a lifetime achievement award). Bridge of Spies and/or Star Wars: The Force Awakens are other contenders in this category, but I think they'll give it to the Quentin Tarantino western leading to a guaranteed standing ovation.
Best Original Song: Earned It from 50 Shades of Grey
I think it's going to come down to the three songs being performed at the Oscars, with apologies to Manta Ray and Simple Song #3. Writing's on the Wall was a mediocre Bond theme, mainly due to Sam Smith's refusal to control his voice (a song without percussion practically requires the singer to let us know when we reach the emotional climax and Wall never did). It leaves Til It Happens to You which has received some sentiment due to it being Diane Warren's eighth nomination (she's 0 for 7 so far) and Earned It which won a Grammy award. Considering the best part of the egregious 50 Shades was its choice of music and that they don't list the producer/singer among the choices, I think the Weeknd takes it.
The Rest of the Preliminaries:
Best Film Editing: The Big Short
I admit that it's more or less a coin flip between Mad Max: Fury Road and The Big Short. Having said that, Oscar voters tend to go with flashier editing and The Big Short will prevail.
Best Animated Film: Inside Out
With apologies to Shaun the Sheep Movie, When Marnie Was There, and Boy and the World, it's a two film race. Although Anomalisa was a critical favorite earning raves for its unusual style and subject manner, Inside Out was also critically beloved and may be one of Pixar's best due to its expert look inside the head of a small child. This will be their compensation for probably being left off the Best Picture list.
Best Documentary: Amy
A good case could be made for The Look of Silence, a film about an optician looking for the murderers of his brother which is a pseudo-sequel to The Act of Killing. And the documentary Cartel Land is another potential spoiler due to its look at vigilante groups on both sides of the US-Mexican border taking on drug cartels. But I think the Oscar will go to the documentary examining the talent and troubled life of Amy Winehouse, which has earned box office dollars, critical raves, and even an endorsement of Mark Ronson who worked with Winehouse on acclaimed album Back to Black. Although apparently her father isn't a fan of the film, I think that won't matter to voters.
Best Foreign Film: Son of Saul
As a general rule, don't bet against films dealing with the Holocaust (I know, we went against that rule with Best Documentary Short, but whatever). And although Mustang which is about Turkish sisters rebelling against arranged marriages could prove to be a spoiler (French films have won 12 Oscars in this category, trailing only Italian ones), I think there's enough freshness and unique spin that this should prevail.
The Big Show
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander,
Kate Winslet, for her turn in Steve Jobs, could prove to be a spoiler. But I'll go with the critical darling who's won both the Critic's Choice or the SGA awards. Hollywood loves to reward a young ingenue and Vikander should prevail.
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Big Short
Sylvester Stallone has been leading the pack most of the way and it would be a very sentimental story to see him triumph over adversity as Rocky Balboa. But as a general rule, there's one shocker in the acting categories and with DiCaprio and Larson as locks and Vikander as a favorite in Best Supporting Actress, I think it happens here. I don't think that Mark Rylance will prevail as Bridge of Spies's moment has passed. If Hardy somehow wins here, then the Revenant should be sweeping its way through the field. But I doubt it. So it comes down to Ruffalo and Bale. And I think they'll go with Bale who gave the best performance in The Big Short over Ruffalo, who just seemed to be part of an ensemble.
Best Actress: Brie Larson, The Room
It started with a mix of contenders including Cate Blanchett as a woman dealing with being a lesbian at a less tolerant time and Saoirse Ronan (pronounced Ser-Shay, thanks to help from fellow Canadian Ryan Gosling). But the awards and tea leaves have been spelling out in favor of Larson for a while now and it makes perfect sense. Her role as a mother trying to raise her child while being confined in a shed by kidnappers has the stuff that Oscar voters go for.
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
One could argue the merits of Bryan Cranston as Dalton Trumbo or Matt Damon as the astronaut left on Earth or even Michael Fassbender as the mercurial Steve Jobs. But Leo is perceived as overdue and by the time he accepts his Oscar, we won't have to hear any more of the "When's he going to win" nonsense that also plagued long curses by the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs.
Best Director: Alejandro Irranitu, The Revenant
There are five directors nominated, but in the end it comes down to two. George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road, a film that reinvigorated the action genre and perhaps served as a career best achievement. And Irranitu, who won last year for Birdman and threatens to be the third director to have won two Oscars in a row. Considering he won the DGA's, I'll go with Irranitu although I wouldn't be shocked to hear Miller's name.
Best Picture: The Big Short
It's been a real horse race between three films. The Revenant, which focuses on one man's quest for revenge against the folks who left him for dead after a bear mauling while trying to make his way back home to his family, Spotlight, and The Big Short. Any of them can win. But at the end, the best predictor is the Producer Guild's Awards or the PGAs which replicates the preferential ballot that the Academy uses. And the winner of that award was The Big Short which should prevail as well.
Other Predictions:
Last person shown in In Memoriam segment: Christopher Lee
How Many standing Ovations total: 5
Chris Rock's Opening Monologue: Over 8 minutes and 45 seconds. I think it'll be closer to 9 and a half to 10 minutes.
Red Dress wearer: Rachel McAdams
Best Picture Nominees going empty handed: Brooklyn appears to be safe as does The Martian. Bridge of Spies is questionable, due to Rylance's chances of taking Supporting Actor.
BB-8 Appearance: I vote no appearance.
