The Categories That’ll Get Announced on Monday Morning:
Best Picture:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Spoiler: The Father
Longshots: Da 5 Bloods, The Mauritanian, News of the World
Thoughts: There’s a top tier of four titles led by Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari and Promising Young Woman. The next tier is led by One Night in Miami and includes Mank and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Judas is a late entry in this race and has gotten some momentum. Leaning towards Sound of Metal being the final entry, but there’s a chance the older members might pick The Father instead. News of the World is on the outside looking in at this point.
Best Actor:
Riz Ahmed---Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman---Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins---The Father
Gary Oldman---Mank
Steven Yeun---Minari
Spoilers: Mads Mikklesen---Another Round, Tahar Rahim---The Mauritanian
Longshot: Delroy Lindo---Da 5 Bloods
Thoughts: There’s usually a fear that when a nominee is considered likely for both actor/actress and supporting actor/actress that they get blanked out of both. But Boseman’s been the front runner and I see nothing to fear here. Hopkins and Ahmed should also be locks. In any other year, the two of them would be fighting out for an Oscar. Yeun kind of got hosed in 2019 for Burning and I feel like he’ll get a nomination in response for his work in Minari. Unlike other prognosticators, I think Oldman is most vulnerable to being knocked out by a spoiler. Mank’s cooled for a while and there’s no hurry to give Oldman another Oscar after he won for Darkest Hour.
Best Actress:
Viola Davis---Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day---The United States vs Billie Holiday
Carey Mulligan---Promising Young Woman
Vanessa Kirby---Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand---Nomadland
Spoilers: Sophia Loren---The Life Ahead, Rosamund Pike---I Care a Lot
Longshot: Yeri Han---Minari
Thoughts: Davis, McDormand and Mulligan seem like mortal locks for a nomination at this point. If I had to guess, I think Mulligan has to be the favorite to win for her turn in Woman. Andra Day came on the radar with her Golden Globe nomination and winning it probably placed her in the field. Kirby has received a lot of love from nominations, but if anybody slipped in at the last minute, it would be at her expense. Loren and Pike have outside chances, but there’s a shot it could pay off for either one of them.
Best Supporting Actor:
Sacha Baron Cohen---The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya---Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr.---One Night in Miami
Paul Raci---Sound of Metal
David Strathairn---Nomadland
Spoiler: Alan Kim---Minari
Longshots: Chadwick Boseman---Da 5 Bloods, Jared Leto---The Little Things
Thoughts: Cohen, Kaluuya and Odom Jr. feel like they should have their phones ready to go on Monday morning. Raci almost feels like a lock as well. I think it’ll come down to Strathairn and Kim for the last spot and I think with the momentum of Nomadland, it’ll be the veteran actor getting the final spot. Of the other two, I think Leto does have a slight chance but reviews have been mixed on his performance. Voters will likely decide Boseman is better off with just the nomination for best actor.
Best Supporting Actress:
Maria Bakalova---Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close---Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman---The Father
Jodie Foster---The Mauritanian
Youn Yuh-jung---Minari
Spoiler: Dominique Fishback---Judas and the Black Messiah
Longshots: Amanda Seyfried---Mank, Helena Zengel---News of the World
Thoughts: Yuh-jung and Colman feel quite likely at this point. Although the Borat sequel is a comedy which is usually a strike against it, there is precedent for a supporting actress to get nominated and even win (see Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny) for such a role. Foster gets in due to her speech at the Golden Globes. The last spot goes to Close who also got a Razzie nod for the same role which also has happened before (Amy Irving in Yentl and James Coco in Only When I Laugh). For the record, both previous double nominees lost. If anybody shows up to take a spot from Close or Foster, it’ll be Fishback.
Best Director:
Lee Isaac Chung---Minari
David Fincher---Mank
Aaron Sorkin---The Trial of the Chicago 7
Thomas Vinterberg---Another Round
Chloe Zhao---Nomadland
Spoilers: Emerald Fennell---Promising Young Woman, Regina King---One Night in Miami, Florian Zeller---The Father
Longshots: Paul Greengrass---News of the World, Shaka King---Judas and the Black Messiah
Thoughts: Chung, Sorkin and Zhao are all DGA nominees and their films have plenty of momentum. Some have argued that Chung is vulnerable, but I think more likely that if there’s another surprise, it’ll come at the expense of Fincher whose buzz for Mank has cooled dramatically. Vinterberg gets the last slot for now, but understand any of the spoilers have a decent shot at taking one or two spots. Expect chaos tomorrow.
The Rest of the Nominees:
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger
Spoilers: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, News of the World
Longshots: First Cow, The Mauritanian
Thoughts: One Night in Miami feels like a lock. Even though they didn’t get WGA nominations due to quirky rules, Nomadland and The Father should be locked in as well. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is vulnerable, but I think them making the best picture race should keep them in. For the last spot, going with surprise nominee The White Tiger over Borat which will probably be penalized due to its genre.
Best Original Screenplay:
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Spoiler: Judas and the Black Messiah
Longshots: The Forty Year Old Version, Soul
Thoughts: Minari, Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7 feel like locks. Sound of Metal may well be the fourth film and Mank in fifth. I could see Judas breaking through as a decent possibility with The Forty Year Old Version as a quiet sleeper with a compelling story that could conceivably be told during the run up to the Oscars.
Best Cinematography:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Spoilers: Cherry, Tenet
Longshots: Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari
Thoughts: Mank, News of the World and Nomanland feel like locks. The Trial of the Chicago 7 should be after getting a cinematography nomination from the guild (as did the three locks). Cherry was a surprise inclusion among the guild nominations, but I do think the voters will go with the fast charging Judas and the Black Messiah over the savior of the big screen Tenet or the critically panned Cherry.
Best Film Editing:
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Spoilers; The Father, Promising Young Woman
Longshots: News of the World, Tenet
Thoughts: When in doubt, go with the films that have the best shot for Best Picture. Nomadland, Sound of Metal and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are locks. Mank is a near lock at this point. For the last spot, went with Minari although both spoilers could have something to say about that.
Best Production Design:
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
News of the World
Tenet
Spoilers: The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Longshots: Emma, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Thoughts: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World and Tenet all feel like locks. The last spot is up for grabs, but I think it goes for the expansive look of China in Mulan. Both spoilers have a shot at taking the last spot.
Best Costume Design:
Ammonite
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Spoilers: News of the World, Promising Young Woman
Longshots: JIngle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, One Night in Miami, The United States vs Billie Holiday
Thoughts: Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Mank feel like locks. Although not a lock, I do feel confident that Mulan will get a nomination here. As for the last spot, I’ve gotten good buzz on Ammonite and I think it prevails over the spoilers. Don’t sleep on Jingle Jangle, either.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Birds of Prey
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio
Spoilers: Emma, The Glorias
Longshots: The Little Things, One Night in Miami
Thoughts: Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Pinocchio feel like locks. Mank is a near lock. And Birds of Prey would carry on the legacy of Suicide Squad which got a nomination in this category. If anybody breaks through, it could be Emma.
Best Score:
Blizzard of Souls
Mank
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Soul
Spoilers: Minari, Tenet
Longshots: Da 5 Bloods, The Little Things, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Thoughts: The Midnight Sky and News of the World has pedigree on its side. Soul has to be a lock considering it’s the frontrunner. Mank will allow Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross the opportunity to get double nominations (they’re also a part of the team behind Soul). As for the last spot, call it a hunch. But when an unexpected choice makes the shortlist, odds are good there’s a decent amount of support for it. Either spoiler has a decent shot of proving me wrong, though.
Best Original Song:
Fight for You (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Husavik (Eurovision Song Contest)
Io Si (Seen) (The Life Ahead)
Speak Now (One Night in Miami)
Turntables (All In: The Fight for Democracy)
Spoilers: Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Never Break (Giving Voice), Wuhan Flu (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Longshots: Loyal Brave True (Mulan), Make It Work (Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey), Rain Song (Minari)
Thoughts: Io Si and Speak Now feel like locks. The former gives Diane Warren perhaps her best shot at winning while the latter gives Leslie Odom Jr. a double nomination (but recent history doesn’t look promising at him taking home an Oscar). Fight for You feels close behind and likely to have its name called. Husavik may stand out among the pack and get a nomination while Turntables gets the fifth. I’m fairly low on the confidence level of the final two spots and a spoiler or even a longshot could sneak in.
Best Sound:
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
Spoilers: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Soul, Tenet, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Longshot: The United States vs Billie Holiday
Thoughts: Precursor nominees seem to lock in Greyhound, News of the World and Sound of Metal. Mank should likely get the fourth spot. In a scramble for the last spot, I’m going with Nomadland barely ahead of a group of spoiler films. This could be wild due to the category being merged from the two in years past for mixing and editing.
Best Visual Effects:
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya
Spoilers: The One and Only Ivan, Soul
Longshot: Birds of Prey
Thoughts: This feels pretty cut and dry to be honest. Have to think Chechnya and Ivan are battling for one spot and going with the documentary.
Best Animated Film:
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Spoilers: Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Earwig and the Witch, On-Gaku: Our Sound
Longshot: The Willoughbys
Thoughts: Based on precursors and the like, only The Croods: A New Age is vulnerable. Broadening the voting block will help its chances, but I suspect they might be replaced by a foreign animated film to join Wolfwalkers.
Best International Film:
Another Round
I’m No Longer Here
The Man Who Sold His Skin
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Two of Us
Spoilers: Collective, Dear Comrades, La Llorona, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, A Sun
Longshots: Charlatan, The Mole Agent
Thoughts: Might as well have thrown out the entire list here. This could prove to be a volatile category where there’s no idea who’ll have time to sit through 15 foreign films. I think Another Round, Quo Vadis, Aida? And Two of Us are safe. I’m No Longer Here might be next and based on the description, I’m taking a shot with The Man Who Sold His Skin. Low level of confidence for the other two which is why you see so many spoilers!
Best Documentary:
Collective
Dick Johnson is Dead
Time
The Truffle Hunters
Welcome to Chechnya
Spoilers: 76 Days, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Mole Agent
Longshots: All In: The Fight for Democracy, Gunda, My Octopus Teacher
Thoughts: This one is also a bit of a question mark, but the influx of foreign voters might go with The Truffle Hunters and Welcome to Chechnya over something like Boys State or Crip Camp. Collective, Time and Chechnya are the ones I feel more confident in. And for the final spot, I’m picking the divisive Dick Johnson is Dead which I think will have enough supporters to make the official list.
Best Documentary Short:
Abortion Helpline: This is Lisa
Colette
A Concerto is a Conversation
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha
Spoilers: Do Not Split, Hysterical Girl, The Speed Cubers, What Would Sophia Loren Do?
Thoughts: Shorts are always tricky to predict. As you can see by the spoilers, there’s plenty of room for changes. Those looking for more lighthearted shorts can find them with Concerto and Love Song while Abortion Helpline, Colette and Hunger Ward explore more serious issues. Abortion Helpline is the last one in and could find itself replaced.
Best Animated Short:
Burrow
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens, I Love You
Out
The Snail and the Whale
Spoilers: Kapemahu, Opera
Longshot: To Gerard
Thoughts: Shorts are always tricky to predict. I feel good about If Anything Happens, I Love You and Out making it, but literally there’s no difference between any of the other films on the list and the spoilers. Any of them could get in or fall out.
Best Live Action Short:
Da Yie
Feeling Through
The Human Voice
The Letter Room
Two Distant Strangers
Spoilers: The Present, White Eye
Longshots: Bittu, The Kicksled Choir
Thoughts: Shorts are always tricky to predict. But this year, we have some star power. Imagine a film directed by Pedro Almodovar starring Tilda Swinton, Oscar Isaac and Marlee Matlin. Sounds interesting, right? Well, the shorts feature the names I mentioned with Almodovar directing Swinton in The Human Voice, Isaac starring in The Letter Room and Matlin producing Feeling Through. Those three feel like locks with Two Distant Strangers. For the last spot, I’m going with Da Yie, but either of the spoilers have a shot at claiming it.
