In the year that #MeToo was prevalent and Hollywood has been in a cold war with the Tweeter in Chief, it's amazing that we've yet to go through with the Academy Awards. But here we are and it's time to let the world know who I think will win.
I'll go list the winners in two parts. Part 1 will be the awards everyone will be looking out for. Part 2 will be the more technical, who cares stuff that gets ignored by all but those who love movies.
Best Film: Dunkirk
My Take: For a lot of this race, it came down to a pair of films that voters seemed more respectful of than enthused. Thanks to the preference system, we'll find out which ones were more loved and which ones were just admired. But Three Billboards seems to be of a love it or loathe it nature which means it'll get some #1 votes, but also a decent amount of #9 ones. I think I've read where some of the older voters weren't even planning on watching Get Out which I think knocks that out of the equation. Lady Bird seems like a film that's well liked even if it may not have enough #1 votes to pull through. The Shape of Water is a perfectly respectful choice to win best picture, but I can't shake the feeling that it's probably got as many #5 votes as #1 ones. Dunkirk seems well liked and will probably be the "surprise" winner.
Best Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
My Take: He's been favored since day one. Can't think of any reason why he wouldn't prevail because he does everything from the "big speech" to the physical transformation. Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) got his award with the Independent Spirit last night and he should enjoy himself. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out) should also enjoy himself as like Chalamet, his star is on the rise.
Best Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My Take: Early on, both Saoirse Ronan (pronounced Sir-sha Ronin) and Sally Hawkins (playing a mute) had chances. But I think the previous Oscar winner locked up her trophy with that fiery, eloquent speech at the Golden Globes. She's the heart and soul of this film and I don't suspect that she'll be affected by the backlash.
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
My Take: Supporting categories are more of a crapshoot than the lead ones. There has been a backlash against Three Billboards due to questions on how Sam Rockwell's racist cop character was supposedly redeemed. I think if the backlash is indeed a thing, it would be felt here. Dafoe took the early lead in this race and has enough points according to 538's website to pull out the win. If Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) prevails, then that film is going to have a great night. It'll be pretty good, but I don't think it'll be that good.
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
My Take: It's essentially a two person race, but Janney has been putting distance between herself and Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) with each passing week. I think if the upset is going to happen, it will be best supporting actor. Plus, playing Mama Harding gives Janney the more showy role which is catnip for its hall of voters.
Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
My Take: Much like supporting actress, it's a two person race. But Del Toro has a huge lead right now and sentiment will be strong due to well regarded previous films like Pan's Labyrinth and The Orphanage. He's due and I suspect he's got this one sewed up.
Best Animated Film: Coco
My Take: In a more competitive year, The Breadwinner would get a shot. Captain Underpants had some anarchic spirit to it at least and there was the scene in The Boss Baby where a boy learns to ride a bike with the help of nothing but business platitudes. But Coco is the most emotional animated film Disney/Pixar has had since Up and it should prevail.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Call Me By Your Name
My Take: Interestingly, neither Merchant or Ivory has won an Academy Award despite multiple nominations. Since Merchant has unfortunately passed, I suspect that James Ivory will prevail with his highly regarded adaptation.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay): Get Out
My Take: Usually, the screenplay awards work as a sort of consolation prize to films that don't win Best Picture. Since Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards) failed to get even a directing nod, I think it goes down to either Jordan Peele (Get Out) or Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird). Considering the script by Peele is one of the most praised parts of the film, I think it will prevail. Bonus points to giving him the award the day after the film that made him quit acting (The Emoji Movie) won the Worst Picture Razzie.
Cinematography: Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
My Take: Another surprise is that Deakins is the Susan Lucci of Oscars having gone 0 for 14. Although Mudbound and Dunkirk might surprise, Deakins has won the awards that are predictors and I think his name will finally be called in a highlight of the night.
Costume Design: Phantom Thread
My Take: A possibility is here for The Shape of Water which won at the Costume Designers Awards. But I think it will be the film about fashion that prevails here.
Film Editing: Baby Driver
My Take: It will come down to Baby Driver and war film Dunkirk. But I'm going to lean on the BAFTA winner (which is a predictor) in this category and go with the Edgar Wright film.
Makeup and Hairstyling: Wonder
My Take: It's usually the film that makes the most that prevails here. And Wonder is the only nominee that cracked $100 million so it should prevail. Darkest Hour could be a possibility though due to how they transformed Oldman into Churchill so it can't be dismissed.
Music (Original Score): Dunkirk
My Take: This one is a tough category to go with. But I suspect that the war movie will prevail over The Shape of Water and Phantom Thread. Any of those three could win, though.
Music (Original Song): Remember Me, Coco
My Take: It's a crapshoot between Remember Me from Coco and This Is Me from The Greatest Showman. But a good rule of thumb is rarely bet against Disney.
Production Design: The Shape of Water
My Take: Another battle between The Shape of Water and Dunkirk. But Shape has won the key predictor awards and has competed at a lower budget than Dunkirk.
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
My Take: Sound editing refers to collecting the sounds needed for a film. It usually goes to sci-fi or war films. I think it comes down to Dunkirk or Blade Runner 2049 and I think the Best Picture nominee will prevail.
Sound Mixing: Baby Driver
My Take: Sound mixing is more about placing the sounds together in a pleasing way. Much like editing it goes down to a war or sci-fi film, but I'm not going to bet against the edgy Driver considering Whiplash won in 2014.
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
My Take: Runner won the BAFTA award in this category and should prevail. War for the Planet of the Apes appears to be the bridesmaid this time.
Foreign Film: A Fantastic Woman, Chile
My Take: Chilean films have had one nominee here prior to tonight (2013's No), but I think its consistency will prevail over The Insult and The Square.
Documentary (Feature): Last Men in Aleppo
My Take: It's a crapshoot with four potential winners (sorry, Strong Island). Faces Places could win it, but Agnes Varda won an honorary Oscar last year which might have taken some steam off of it. Abacus: Too Small to Jail was a good story, but usually this is about more timely fare. Icarus is the most timely with the recent Winter Olympics dealing with the fallout of Russian doping. But I think Syria still being in the news and the fact it focuses on the White Helmets means that this worthy film should prevail.
Documentary (Short): Heroin(e)
My Take: Netflix will prevail as the documentary focuses on the timely opioid crisis and the efforts of women to help combat that.
Short Film (Animated): Lou
My Take: Unless the kerfluffle with Olaf's short being before Coco costs it some votes, I wouldn't bet against Pixar. Garden Party and Dear Basketball are contenders, but they'll both fall short.
Short Film (Live Action): Watu Wote: All of Us
My Take: The story of Muslim militants having a standoff with passengers on a bus as the Muslims on board refuses to feel fear feels timely and I suspect will prevail over Dekalb, Elementary.
I'll go list the winners in two parts. Part 1 will be the awards everyone will be looking out for. Part 2 will be the more technical, who cares stuff that gets ignored by all but those who love movies.
Part 1:
Best Film: Dunkirk
My Take: For a lot of this race, it came down to a pair of films that voters seemed more respectful of than enthused. Thanks to the preference system, we'll find out which ones were more loved and which ones were just admired. But Three Billboards seems to be of a love it or loathe it nature which means it'll get some #1 votes, but also a decent amount of #9 ones. I think I've read where some of the older voters weren't even planning on watching Get Out which I think knocks that out of the equation. Lady Bird seems like a film that's well liked even if it may not have enough #1 votes to pull through. The Shape of Water is a perfectly respectful choice to win best picture, but I can't shake the feeling that it's probably got as many #5 votes as #1 ones. Dunkirk seems well liked and will probably be the "surprise" winner.
Best Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
My Take: He's been favored since day one. Can't think of any reason why he wouldn't prevail because he does everything from the "big speech" to the physical transformation. Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) got his award with the Independent Spirit last night and he should enjoy himself. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out) should also enjoy himself as like Chalamet, his star is on the rise.
Best Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My Take: Early on, both Saoirse Ronan (pronounced Sir-sha Ronin) and Sally Hawkins (playing a mute) had chances. But I think the previous Oscar winner locked up her trophy with that fiery, eloquent speech at the Golden Globes. She's the heart and soul of this film and I don't suspect that she'll be affected by the backlash.
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
My Take: Supporting categories are more of a crapshoot than the lead ones. There has been a backlash against Three Billboards due to questions on how Sam Rockwell's racist cop character was supposedly redeemed. I think if the backlash is indeed a thing, it would be felt here. Dafoe took the early lead in this race and has enough points according to 538's website to pull out the win. If Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) prevails, then that film is going to have a great night. It'll be pretty good, but I don't think it'll be that good.
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
My Take: It's essentially a two person race, but Janney has been putting distance between herself and Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) with each passing week. I think if the upset is going to happen, it will be best supporting actor. Plus, playing Mama Harding gives Janney the more showy role which is catnip for its hall of voters.
Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
My Take: Much like supporting actress, it's a two person race. But Del Toro has a huge lead right now and sentiment will be strong due to well regarded previous films like Pan's Labyrinth and The Orphanage. He's due and I suspect he's got this one sewed up.
Part 2:
Best Animated Film: Coco
My Take: In a more competitive year, The Breadwinner would get a shot. Captain Underpants had some anarchic spirit to it at least and there was the scene in The Boss Baby where a boy learns to ride a bike with the help of nothing but business platitudes. But Coco is the most emotional animated film Disney/Pixar has had since Up and it should prevail.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Call Me By Your Name
My Take: Interestingly, neither Merchant or Ivory has won an Academy Award despite multiple nominations. Since Merchant has unfortunately passed, I suspect that James Ivory will prevail with his highly regarded adaptation.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay): Get Out
My Take: Usually, the screenplay awards work as a sort of consolation prize to films that don't win Best Picture. Since Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards) failed to get even a directing nod, I think it goes down to either Jordan Peele (Get Out) or Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird). Considering the script by Peele is one of the most praised parts of the film, I think it will prevail. Bonus points to giving him the award the day after the film that made him quit acting (The Emoji Movie) won the Worst Picture Razzie.
Cinematography: Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
My Take: Another surprise is that Deakins is the Susan Lucci of Oscars having gone 0 for 14. Although Mudbound and Dunkirk might surprise, Deakins has won the awards that are predictors and I think his name will finally be called in a highlight of the night.
Costume Design: Phantom Thread
My Take: A possibility is here for The Shape of Water which won at the Costume Designers Awards. But I think it will be the film about fashion that prevails here.
Film Editing: Baby Driver
My Take: It will come down to Baby Driver and war film Dunkirk. But I'm going to lean on the BAFTA winner (which is a predictor) in this category and go with the Edgar Wright film.
Makeup and Hairstyling: Wonder
My Take: It's usually the film that makes the most that prevails here. And Wonder is the only nominee that cracked $100 million so it should prevail. Darkest Hour could be a possibility though due to how they transformed Oldman into Churchill so it can't be dismissed.
Music (Original Score): Dunkirk
My Take: This one is a tough category to go with. But I suspect that the war movie will prevail over The Shape of Water and Phantom Thread. Any of those three could win, though.
Music (Original Song): Remember Me, Coco
My Take: It's a crapshoot between Remember Me from Coco and This Is Me from The Greatest Showman. But a good rule of thumb is rarely bet against Disney.
Production Design: The Shape of Water
My Take: Another battle between The Shape of Water and Dunkirk. But Shape has won the key predictor awards and has competed at a lower budget than Dunkirk.
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
My Take: Sound editing refers to collecting the sounds needed for a film. It usually goes to sci-fi or war films. I think it comes down to Dunkirk or Blade Runner 2049 and I think the Best Picture nominee will prevail.
Sound Mixing: Baby Driver
My Take: Sound mixing is more about placing the sounds together in a pleasing way. Much like editing it goes down to a war or sci-fi film, but I'm not going to bet against the edgy Driver considering Whiplash won in 2014.
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
My Take: Runner won the BAFTA award in this category and should prevail. War for the Planet of the Apes appears to be the bridesmaid this time.
Foreign Film: A Fantastic Woman, Chile
My Take: Chilean films have had one nominee here prior to tonight (2013's No), but I think its consistency will prevail over The Insult and The Square.
Documentary (Feature): Last Men in Aleppo
My Take: It's a crapshoot with four potential winners (sorry, Strong Island). Faces Places could win it, but Agnes Varda won an honorary Oscar last year which might have taken some steam off of it. Abacus: Too Small to Jail was a good story, but usually this is about more timely fare. Icarus is the most timely with the recent Winter Olympics dealing with the fallout of Russian doping. But I think Syria still being in the news and the fact it focuses on the White Helmets means that this worthy film should prevail.
Documentary (Short): Heroin(e)
My Take: Netflix will prevail as the documentary focuses on the timely opioid crisis and the efforts of women to help combat that.
Short Film (Animated): Lou
My Take: Unless the kerfluffle with Olaf's short being before Coco costs it some votes, I wouldn't bet against Pixar. Garden Party and Dear Basketball are contenders, but they'll both fall short.
Short Film (Live Action): Watu Wote: All of Us
My Take: The story of Muslim militants having a standoff with passengers on a bus as the Muslims on board refuses to feel fear feels timely and I suspect will prevail over Dekalb, Elementary.
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